Work Package 3 (2018)
The SFOE-funded system adequacy study on the Swiss electricity supply security until 2035 has been a joint effort by researchers from UniBas and ETHZ. It showcases the linkage between economic (CREST) and technical (FURIES) research. Based on a detailed deterministic model approach and a probabilistic model, the scenario analysis concludes that Switzerland faces no critical supply threat if it remains embedded in the European electricity system. Imports can compensate the nuclear phase out and the occurring loss of load events in Switzerland in the different model runs are often a measure to counter European supply shortages and not a sign of supply shortages in Europe. Only in case of extreme capacity reduction abroad (i.e., large reductions of German lignite and coal capacities without compensation) coupled with reductions in domestic hydro capacities, Swiss-specific loss of load events can occur. The study results contributed to the ongoing debate on the role of imports from Europe for the Swiss electricity supply and gained significant attention in media and politics. They have been instrumental as a basis for the current Swiss strategy for reforming its electricity markets.